Understanding the commitment bias is essential in investment since we are all human

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What is the commitment bias? The "Commitment bias is the tendency to be consistent with what we have already done or said we will do in the past, particularly if this is public. Inconsistency is not a desirable trait, thus people try hard to keep their promises and reflect consistency."

The commitment bias can be both bad and good. 

In science, once a principle has been established and accepted by the vast majority of the scientific community, people become committed to the principle. Those who don't accept the principle are viewed as heretics. On the other hand, there have been numerous examples of widely-accepted scientific principles that have been proven to be outright wrong.  To stay committed to the original principle doesn't make sense. 

For example, the thought that the world was flat was accepted hundreds of years ago, but it has since been proven to be wrong.   To remain committed to the world being flat, puts the believer in the position of looking "crazy".

Take politics, the commitment bias is often used as a weapon to sway people to stay committed to what someone else wants to them believe.  The goal is to make the person look inconsistent if they don't stay on-board with certain groups’ views. Social pressure is brought on by "labeling" the person a "flip flop". On the other side, commitment can help to keep stability in our government.  It would be anarchy if people were changing viewpoints constantly.

In investments, the commitment bias comes up all the time.  Being committed to an investment when the market is down gets the advocate labeled as a heretic.  On the other end of the spectrum, when everyone is committed to the market rising forever, the crazy person is the person who thinks the market may be due for a downturn. During a market cycle, the cycle always turns up to down and back up again.  This is a continuous process.  It is difficult to decide when to leave the commitment of the "herd" and leave behind the general consensus.  This issue is an integral and continual part of being an investor.

As an investor, there will always be a point to move away from the crowd and appear inconsistent.  The most successful investors are better at leaving their prior held commitments than the majority of investors.  This "flip flop" is essential in the investment world to be successful.  The investors who are worst at making these calls are the ones who buy at market tops and sell at market bottoms as they are the last to capitulate from their commitments.

To leave a commitment held in any field or endeavor is often not a bad thing as it has been framed by many.  If new information is discovered, it is rational to leave a commitment and move on.  Although the commitment bias is well engrained in peoples' behavior, views sometimes must be changed.  There is no easy answer. 

The best method to deal with the commitment bias is to continually assess other views and try to realistically and honestly re-evaluate them.  The challenge is that we can never totally disassociate ourselves with being human, but we must do our best.

Copyright 2017 Mark T. McLaren