I'm not a big fan of forecasting in stock analysis. Why? There are just too many moving parts and the further you get away from right now, the more variability there is. With each step further in time, the variability multiplies at an exponential rate.
The economy has always had cycles and always will. The lengths, highs and lows are always different for each cycle. While these cycles can be extended and down cycles can be alleviated by artificial means, excessive interventions always have a price to be paid.
