Be careful with taking predictions "lock stock and barrel"

mark's picture

Predicting is a highly uncertain and risky field.  The probability that one prediction will come to fruition when so many different outcomes could occur is miniscule. 

People use predictions as mental biases or shortcuts.  With a given answer, the person doesn't have to think much about a subject.  They swallow the prediction - hook, line and sinker , to avoid the mental stress of THINKING. 

These mental “shortcuts” are actually coping mechanisms we have.  If we had to think deeply about every decision we made, we would spend our whole life JUST THINKING and nothing would get done.

Anyway, predictions came to my mind after reading this paragraph from today's Barrons magazine.

"The West slapped new sanctions on Russian oil products this past Sunday that many thought would spike diesel prices. On Monday, fuel prices barely budged. “I think right now the market is kind of in show-me mode,” says RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft."

Often people make statements like something is definitely going to happen.  Best response... question it!

Be smart, be well-read, be aware and be successful.

"Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future."

-Warren Buffett

Copyright 2017 Mark T. McLaren