posted by mark
on Mon, 04/01/2019 - 11:47
While the market has been moving up lately, I find very few interesting stocks to add to my holdings. There are no "magic beans" that grow to the sky.
The reasons for my view are several. Like most viewpoints, there are counterpoints, but I find studying history provides much information to me in developing my market view. History may not be the same, but it rhymes.
- Seasoned investors (not speculators) who are 65 years old and up have been expressing caution for some time. They don't have a crystal ball, but they have been through many years of market gyrations like the early 1970's, late 1970's into the early 1980's, the late 1980's, the early 2000's and the great recession starting in 2008. They could be wrong, but I’m willing to put my money on the wide experiences and knowledge they have to offer.
- The US is not an economic island. Europe, Japan, China and many others are currently teetering on economic contractions. Now days, most large US businesses have significant international operations. We export to other countries which is a large source of revenues. Also, US companies have many complete operations in other countries. Sooner or later, international exposures are going to have a marked effect upon the bottom lines of major US companies.
- Wall Street is vested in positive talk that the market will continue upward. The investment activity volume is very large in an up or bull market and dries up during a downturn. Drying up investment activity results in the investment industry contracting. That means jobs will contract. Last week a major bank announced a "RIF" (reduction in force). I would expect more to come.
- The trend in political nationalization is strongly effecting trade and the movement of productive resources to the most effective locations. Either way, Brexit will have negative effects upon the British economy. Industries and businesses who perceive potential risks have been making "adjustments" in their production locations for some time. This same activity is happening with companies that have Chinese exposure.
- Tariffs have long been known to "decrease the pie" for everyone. As the pie decreases, less will be available for all.
- IPO's are known to boom at the tops of bull markets. Private investors want to sell their IPO's while prices are inflated. No one wants to sell IPO's in down markets. IPO activity is currently taking center stage. Often these companies have trends in their earnings of huge losses and growing losses. They sell on revenue multipliers, not earnings multipliers. The solution of money losing companies is OPM (Other Peoples Money) to shore up their capital structures with inflated IPO offers. For these companies, the time to sell inflated shares is when people are at a frenzy of excitement. The “lottery ticket” mentality is currently strong.
- Companies are loaded up on debt. One company I owned went from 20% debt to 80% debt over 8 years. If operating earnings contract very much, debt service will be difficult to make.
- Consumers are high in debt and default rates are increasing. College loans have grown to monstrous proportions. 70% of GDP is driven by the consumer. The 1/2 percentage who control most of the wealth are not driving the GDP because they don't spend, but continue to reinvest. The average consumer has to spend some just to survive. If the average person is topped out on debt and slowing spending, the GDP can't rise because the average consumer is most of the 70%.
This is a time I have chosen to ensure a large margin of safety, by owning investments significantly below the current market's prices.
Others may have different viewpoints, but for me, I would rather be safe than sorry.